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Nicholas J. Gotelli: Specimen-based modeling, stopping rules, & the extinction of the ivory-billed woodpecker

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The reported rediscovery of the Ivory-Billed Woodpecker in 2004 was one of the most exciting and controversial events in the history of conservation biology. This tea presents new quantitative analyses of historical museum specimen records and the results of contemporary avian surveys to estimate the probability that the Ivory-Billed Woodpecker is extant today. The talk is a mixture of conservation biology and statistical modeling, with some elements of economics, history, and psychology added for flavor.

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